At a New York convention on 28 May, Deputy Senior Director of Excelsior Neil Chapman stated that the global oil reserves were approaching an unprecedented low. "Maybe in 2-3 weeks, storage will go down to extremely low thresholds. When that happens, the price of oil will skyrocket," he said. Brent oil prices were delivered immediately – used to assess more than 60% of the global transaction of crude oil – possibly up to $150-60 a barrel.

The reserves of oil and strategic reserves have helped to control some of the oil prices over the past three months, when the war in the Middle East prevented the supply from reaching many areas of the world. That's why the price of future crude oil remains under $100 a barrel, although the Hormuz Channel is in fact still closed.

Over the last time, U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly said the parties were about to reach a re-opening agreement, Hormuz. That, however, has not yet come true. Business and oil specialists have been making increasing warnings.

Get out! [The American strategic oil reserves at Freeport, Texas April/2020]. Image:Reuters](htttts SSGqp OUOOUEUEEPKEEEGEG

  • Mahé reserves American strategic oil at Freeport, Texas April/2020. Image: Reuters*

On June 2, Toril Bosoni - Director of the Market and Oil Department of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that if storage continues to decline at the current rate, global reserve oil can descend to an extremely low point at the time the summer fuel needs reach.

"As the reserves run out, the price of oil will have to grow stronger to balance the supply. That means consumers have to pay higher prices or demand will be reduced", Mehmet Bereen - Deputy Chairman and Senior Marketist at Rosenberg Research, said. He noted that the market may have a turning point in late June.

"To the second half of June, the high price of oil would likely increase rapidly", if traffic passed through the Hormuz Channel did not return to pre-surface conflict, JPMorgan bank predicted.

In the United States, the largest oil production country in the world, the total inventory of only 791 million barrels in the week ended on 29 May. This is the lowest since February 2024, according to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). The U.S. oil reserves have dropped nearly 64 million barrels since the conflict began and dropped continuously over the last eight weeks.

According to the plans of IEA member countries, the US will empty 172 million barrels from the strategic oil Reserve (SPR). In total, IEA countries will sell the 400 million barrels record to control the increase in energy prices.

These discharges, along with the import of crude oil by China's seaway drop, have helped to ease somewhat the supply shock. "I suppose the risk of a second oil shock is real. But that shock may come from the drying out of the reserve buffer, not from the closure of the Hormuz Channel", Shohruh Zukhrit Adinov - an oil dealer in Dubai said.

JPMorgan noted the drainage of U.S. reserves, alternative fuel options and factors that used to help limit the increase in the price of oil may not be effective enough, if the state interrupts the extended supply.

Investors claim that the conflict has caused political risk to become part of the oil price, which has caused the spread to inflation, bonds and consumption. Recent developments indicate that the energy market is witnessing a structural change, Joseph Tanious - the chief investment strategy director at Northern Trust Asset Management said.

"Eo Sea Hormuz has become a long-lived political blockpoint", Tanious said. He claimed that the price of oil was unlikely to return to under $70 a barrel as before the conflict, even when the stress dropped.

Besides, the impact will not be equal globally. Tanious argues that Europe and Asia are still more vulnerable because high energy prices persist, while the U.S. exports energy energy - less affected.

Adam Schiffling - economist at Vanguard found oil prices to be "a moderate barrier" to the American economy. He argues that large domestic oil production and strong investment wave into artificial intelligence has helped to compensate somewhat for the consumer pressure.

However, Vanguard estimates that if the price of oil goes up to $120 a barrel and maintains in one year, the American economic growth can reduce by about 0.4 points per year. For households, the impact was not only on the rise, but also on the time the price remained at that level. The consumer still has a surplus of spending, as fuel costs occupy weight in lower income than the previous oil crisis. However, it will narrow down over time.

Phil Blancato - market strategy at Osic argues that if oil prices remain high for the next three months, when residents start driving heavily, the consumption can continue to weaken.

"The consumer information is down to low record. If the price of oil remained at the current level for three more months or increased stronger in the short term, the economy would begin to suffer a marked impact", Blancato said.